Climate change, pseudo-science

I had just written a letter to the editor (LTE) providing a few facts to help readers understand the basic science behind climate change and suggested that skeptics check these facts. I assume the recent LTE on “Fact-checking Climate Change” was an attempt to do that and I greatly appreciate the effort. However, the author of the LTE did not follow a rigorous process in checking facts. The author instead cited a book titled “Dark Winter” by John Casey. The premise of the book is that the science supporting human-induced climate change is a “sham,” and that cyclical fluctuations in solar activity (sunspots) will cause a “mini” ice age by 2030. While Mr. Casey is very articulate and has had a respectable career working for NASA, he is not a scientist.

The paper that he wrote in 2008 supporting his claims is on his Facebook page and essentially states that cyclical patterns of solar activity predict climate change on earth. His paper was never peer reviewed or published. A review of his research by notable climate scientist concluded that it is replete with cherry-picked data and faulty statistics leading to spurious conclusions. Mr. Casey cites the work of University of Northumbria mathematics professor Valentina Zharkova to corroborate his conclusions. Dr. Zharkova, who is a well-respected researcher in Astrophysics, has developed a model predicting a 60% decrease (Maunder minimum) in solar activity that will last until the mid-2050s.

According to NOAA, the current solar cycle likely occurred in 2017-2020, which means that sunspot activity which has reached its lowest level (or Maunder minimum) since 1750. Several studies have concluded that this might cool the planet by as much as 0.3 C (0.54 F), not nearly enough to offset the one to five degrees increase anticipated from human-caused global warming.

According to the United Nations panel on climate change, the current scientific consensus is that short and long-term cyclical fluctuations in solar activity play a small role in Earth’s climate. Climate scientists have factored these cyclical fluctuations into their climate change models and have concluded that whatever climate effects are caused by reduced sunspot activity will be dwarfed by the warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

Denialism associated with human-caused climate change is often caused by relying on pseudo-science to support alternative views. Mr. Casey’s book and his thesis about climate change falls into this category.

William Stack,

Gettysburg